The 2024 Haryana Legislative Assembly election has made headlines as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured a historic third consecutive term, winning 48 out of 90 seats. This victory marks a significant achievement for the BJP, surpassing its previous record of 47 seats in 2014. The election, held on October 5, saw a remarkable turnaround from early predictions that favored the Congress party, which ultimately won 37 seats.
Key factors behind BJP’s shocking victory
1. Jat or non-Jat Community Dynamics: Traditionally, the Jat community has leaned towards Congress and the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP). However, in this election, BJP made substantial gains in Jat-majority areas, increasing its seat count from six in 2019 to 14 in 2024. This shift can be attributed to a counter-polarization effect, where non-Jat voters rallied around the BJP in response to perceived support for Congress among Jats.
On the other hand, the non-Jats might have felt alienated since the Jats were inclined towards Congress; in turn, making the non-jats vote for BJP.
2. Urban Support: The BJP maintained robust backing in urban areas, particularly in the Ahirwal region and cities like Gurugram. In this election cycle, BJP won all 11 Assembly seats in the Ahirwal region and continued to dominate urban constituencies. This urban support was crucial in countering anti-incumbency sentiments that had been building over the past decade.
3. Strategic Leadership Change: The appointment of Nayab Singh Saini as Chief Minister proved to be a masterstroke for the BJP. As the first OBC leader to hold this position in Haryana, Saini managed to unite various voter bases, including both Jats and non-Jats. His government quickly addressed issues from previous administrations and focused on job creation, which resonated with younger voters.
4. Modi's Influence: Prime Minister Narendra Modi's active involvement during the campaign played a significant role in rallying support for the BJP. His promises and presence at multiple rallies helped solidify voter trust in the party’s leadership and its initiatives.
5. Congress's Overconfidence: The Congress party's reliance on local Jat leaders and its underestimation of BJP's capabilities contributed to its defeat. Internal divisions within Congress further weakened its position, as various factions vied for leadership roles without presenting a unified front.
These were the results
The election results were officially declared on October 8, revealing that BJP had achieved a vote share of approximately 39.9%, while Congress garnered about 39.1% - an increase of 11 percentage points for Congress compared to previous elections. Despite this close vote share, Congress could only secure 37 seats due to fragmented opposition votes and localized electoral dynamics favoring BJP.
The Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) managed to win just two seats, while independent candidates secured three seats. Smaller parties like the JJP faced significant losses, failing to win any seats this time around.
The 2024 Haryana Legislative Assembly election has reshaped the political landscape of the state, with BJP solidifying its dominance despite facing anti-incumbency challenges. The combination of strategic leadership changes, effective campaigning by Modi, and shifts in community support played pivotal roles in this outcome. As Congress reassesses its strategy moving forward, it faces an uphill battle to regain ground in Haryana’s evolving political arena. The results very muchsignal a need for renewed focus on unity and electability within opposition ranks if they hope to challenge BJP’s stronghold in future elections.
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