Since last year, the violence between the Kuki-Zo and Meitei tribes in Manipur has escalated dramatically, resulting in the deaths of 226 individuals and displacing nearly 67,000 people. What began as a local conflict has spiraled into a major national security concern, with recent drone attacks and an alarming rate of looted arms and ammunition literally from the military forces.
Rising Violence and Drone Attacks
The conflict between Manipur’s Kuki-Zo and Meitei tribes started nearly on May 3, 2023, and has since seen a troubling increase in violence. Recently, two drone bombings targeted Meitei-dominated villages, claiming two lives and injuring over a dozen others, including a woman and her young daughter. These drones are believed to have been assembled locally, using ammunition looted from police armories. This raises serious questions about the capabilities of local militias, extremely harmful weapons in the hands of the locals, and the accessibility of advanced weaponry in the region.
Shocking Statistics on Arms Looting
The looting of arms has become a distressing norm in Manipur. Since the violence began last year, approximately 5,682 firearms have been reported stolen, yet only 35.7% have been recovered. Even more concerning is the recovery of ammunition: out of 6,64,000 rounds stolen, only 28,000 - just 4% - have been accounted for. This leaves a staggering amount of firepower in the hands of local groups, worsening the fears of further violence.
The situation is complicated by reports that last year, a few weapons went missing from the near 1,000 stockpile of arms and ammunition from the Kuki militant camps, which is putting suspicions of inter-state militant group involvement, specifically the People's Defence Force (PDF) or even foreign agencies supplying arms to fuel the conflict.
There have been concerns that advanced weapons, which were surrendered during peace talks, have mysteriously again gone missing and are now being used in the ongoing clashes between the Meitei and Kuki communities. This issue surfaced even as Union Home Minister Amit Shah visited Manipur, urging everyone to keep calm and talk things out.
Senior security officials said they've finished counting the weapons in the militant camps, and almost all are accounted for, except for a few. This suggests that the groups involved in the violence might be getting their weapons from “other sources.” These include rifles, machine guns, carbines, grenades, tear gas shells, and loads of ammunition.
Meanwhile, at Heingang police station, located in Chief Minister N. Biren Singh’s Meitei-majority constituency, 10 FIRs have been filed about stolen weapons, but investigations haven’t started yet. But, the policemen there allegedly just sitting without weapons, waiting for the situation to cool down.
“Despite the presence of CCTV cameras in all police stations, no arrests have been made, and the identification of the masterminds behind the weapon looting has made no progress,” said a second source in the security establishment. Plus, reportedly no stringent sections have been invoked in any of the FIRs.
What’s The Government Doing?
In response to the drone attacks, Manipur's Chief Minister N Biren Singh condemned the bombings as acts of terrorism. The government has initiated investigations, with cases being handed over to the National Investigation Agency (NIA). A five-member committee has been formed to assess the drones used in the attacks, and security forces are conducting search operations in Kuki-dominated areas, recovering military equipment and a drone.
Despite the presence of 198 companies of central forces in Manipur, many locals feel that these forces are ineffective, often described as "mute spectators" hiding in bulletproof vehicles rather than actively engaging in restoring order. This has led to widespread criticism of the government's response to the escalating violence.
According to the UN, India is the fourth-largest supplier of weapons to Myanmar’s military junta. Yet, in Manipur, a north-eastern state, India is looking to build a border fence to stop the flow of people from Myanmar, which the local government claims is contributing to the smuggling of weapons and drugs. However, the real issue at play seems to be the ongoing inter-ethnic tensions within the state.
The ongoing violence in Manipur is not just a local issue; it poses significant national security concerns. The potential for sophisticated weaponry, including drones, to be utilized by local militias raises alarms about the stability of the region. The involvement of insurgent groups from Myanmar complicates matters, as these groups may be supplying arms and ammunition to the Kuki-Zo factions.
The Indian government has been proactive in addressing the situation, seeking assistance from specialized units like the National Security Guard (NSG) to counter the drone threat. However, the effectiveness of these measures remains to be seen, especially given the alarming rate of arms looting and the ongoing violence.
With thousands of weapons still unaccounted for and the threat of drone warfare becoming a reality, the question remains: how long before this situation spirals completely out of control?
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