India and China have agreed to disengage troops along certain stretches of the Line of Actual Control (LAC), four years after the 2020 Galwan Valley clash. Yet, the deal may not be as comprehensive as it appears. While many are hailing this as a milestone, a closer look reveals some critical gaps.
Disengagement, Not De-escalation
The current agreement focuses on "disengagement," not "de-escalation." In simple terms, disengagement means both sides pulling troops back from contested spots but maintaining a presence in nearby areas. De-escalation, on the other hand, implies a broader withdrawal of military forces, reducing the possibility of conflict. The distinction is crucial because without de-escalation, tensions can remain high, even if troops aren’t directly facing each other.
Key Points of Dispute
Back in 2020, the two nations agreed to withdraw from several hotly contested areas like the Galwan Valley, Gogra-Hot Springs, and Pangong Lake. However, the current deal doesn’t fully address these areas. Instead, it centers on two others: the Depsang Plains and Demchok, which remain points of friction due to continued blockades that prevent Indian patrols. This limited scope raises questions about China’s intentions, as the country hasn't shown willingness to withdraw completely from other high-tension zones.
The Issue of Arunachal Pradesh
A significant omission from this agreement is Arunachal Pradesh. China’s latest 2023 map includes regions of Arunachal as part of its territory, stirring further tensions. Satellite images have even revealed Chinese construction within Indian territory, building settlements and infrastructure six kilometers beyond the LAC.
These actions seem to contradict China's statements about peace and stability in the region, showing an ongoing strategic interest in pushing territorial claims.
What This Agreement Means
Despite the media fanfare, this agreement doesn’t cover all disputed areas, and "disengagement" doesn't equal "de-escalation." Indian soldiers will patrol certain sections of the LAC twice a month, mirroring pre-2020 arrangements, but troop numbers will stay relatively the same. Any meaningful de-escalation would likely require China to reduce its military build-up in these areas - a topic notably absent from the recent deal.
For now, this deal represents a temporary calm rather than a permanent solution. Given China's ongoing territorial assertions, especially in areas like Arunachal Pradesh, it’s clear that true peace along the border is still a long way off.
Moving Forward
As both countries move to stabilize their borders, India insists on returning to the status quo as it was before May 2020. High-level discussions are likely to continue, but without clear steps toward de-escalation, it’s hard to see this agreement as a real step forward. The deal may allow diplomatic engagements at international forums, but both countries must address broader issues if peace is to last.
Ultimately, while the headlines celebrate progress, the reality is far more complex. This new deal may be a beginning, but it’s not the end of India-China tensions along the LAC.
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