India's population is expected to reach a peak of 1.7 billion in the early 2060s before declining by 12 percent, as predicted by a new report from the United Nations. Even after this decline, India is projected to remain the most populous nation through 2100, ahead of China, according to the report.
India's Rise and Eventual Stabilisation
Currently at 1.45 billion, India's population is expected to climb to a peak of 1.7 billion in the early 2060s. This growth can be attributed to India's still-relatively young population with a high birth rate.
However, the report also predicts a decline of 12% after the peak, bringing India's population down to around 1.5 billion by 2100. In 2063, the country would lose around 115,000 people. In 2064, this number would increase to 437,000 and 793,000 in 2065.
China's Shrinking Population
China, on the other hand, faces a starkly different demographic future. With a current population of 1.41 billion, China is expected to witness a steady decline.
The report predicts a drop to 1.21 billion by 2054 and a staggering 633 million by the end of the century. This sharp decline is primarily driven by China's low fertility rate, currently around one birth per woman on average.
What's Behind The Shift?
The key factor driving this demographic shift is fertility rate. Presently, it takes 2.1 births to maintain the current population without migration. If fertility levels remain at a lower level, the population will most likely decline over time, as has been the case with China and some other countries.
India's population is still growing due to a higher birth rate, while China's one-child policy for decades and societal changes have resulted in a much lower fertility rate.
A New World Order?
The UN report paints a picture of a changing world order. India's rise as the world's most populous nation, coupled with China's decline, has significant social and economic implications.
The same report also says that the world’s population is expected to grow in the next 50-60 years, reaching its peak of 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, and then start declining. It will be interesting to see how these demographic shifts impact global power dynamics, trade patterns, and resource allocation in the coming decades.
Comments