The Maldives is taking a significant shift in its foreign policy, moving from a pro-China stance to a more India-friendly approach. This change comes just months after President Mohamed Muizzu's administration aggressively campaigned against Indian influence in the country. So, what motivated this turnaround?
The economy is at an all-time low
The Maldives has historically relied on both China and India for economic support, particularly in trade and tourism. The recent "India Out" campaign and negative rhetoric against Prime Minister Narendra Modi have had serious repercussions. These actions led to a decrease in tourism and trade, pushing the Maldives into debt exceeding $400 million. While China continued to provide some support, it was insufficient to get out of he economic crisis facing the island nation.
Recognizing this situation, India stepped in with financial assistance, including a $400 million currency swap deal. This agreement worked in both favours as it allows both countries to conduct business using local currencies rather than relying on US dollars, which is very crucial in this situation.
A shift in diplomacy
During his recent visit to India, President Muizzu referred to India as a "valued partner," signaling a clear shift from his earlier stance. He surprisingly emphasized that India's cooperation would always be a priority for the Maldives. This visit marked a major diplomatic turnaround, especially after Muizzu had previously sought to reduce Indian military presence in the Maldives and had even allowed a Chinese research ship to dock, which raised concerns in New Delhi.
Muizzu's outreach is seen as a pragmatic response to the economic realities facing the Maldives. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned of potential debt distress for the island nation, making India's support crucial for its financial stability.
Strategic move
For India, maintaining strong ties with the Maldives is vital for controlling the Indian Ocean region. If China were to gain more influence over the Maldives, it could jeopardize India's strategic interests in this critical maritime area. The Maldives serves as a key maritime neighbor and plays an essential role in India's vision of regional security and growth.
India's assistance goes beyond financial aid; it includes plans for infrastructure development, such as building new ports and improving transport links between islands. These initiatives not only bolster economic ties but also enhance India's strategic foothold in the region.
What the future holds
As relations between India and the Maldives improve, there are expectations for further cooperation. Muizzu's administration is likely to focus on balancing relations with both China and India while prioritizing national interests. The recent agreements signal a commitment to rebuilding ties that had soured under his predecessor's administration.
The Maldivian opposition has criticized Muizzu's approach, labeling it naive and inexperienced. However, many analysts believe that recognizing India's importance will ultimately benefit the Maldives economically and strategically.
All in all, Maldives' shift from a pro-China stance back towards India reflects a pragmatic response to economic pressures and strategic realities. As both nations work towards strengthening their ties, the future of their relationship will be critical not only for their bilateral interests but also for regional stability in the Indian Ocean.
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