The diplomatic crisis between India and Canada has reached alarming heights, primarily triggered by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's allegations that Indian agents were involved in the murder of Khalistani separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. This situation has led to a series of retaliatory expulsions of diplomats from both nations and has significant implications for their bilateral relationship.
The spark of tension
The conflict ignited on September 18, 2023, when Trudeau announced in the House of Commons that his government was investigating credible allegations linking Indian agents to Nijjar's assassination outside a Sikh temple in Surrey, British Columbia, on June 18, 2023. Nijjar, who was designated as a terrorist by India in 2020, was a prominent advocate for the Khalistan movement, which seeks an independent Sikh state.
India swiftly dismissed these claims as "absurd" and "politically motivated," asserting that they were designed to distract from Canada's failure to address Khalistani extremism within its borders. The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) emphasized that Canada had not provided any evidence to support its allegations despite repeated requests.
Secret meetings and escalating accusations
Amid the rising tensions, reports emerged that National Security Adviser Ajit Doval held a secret meeting with Canadian officials in Singapore. According to sources, Canadian representatives presented evidence suggesting that India had enlisted the Lawrence Bishnoi gang to carry out Nijjar's killing. Doval allegedly pretended not to know who Bishnoi was but later acknowledged his capability for orchestrating violence from prison.
This meeting underscored Canada's concerns about an "escalating campaign of violence" targeting Sikh separatists on its soil. The Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) indicated they had uncovered evidence implicating Indian agents in serious criminal activities, including homicides and interference in democratic processes.
Diplomatic expulsions
Following Trudeau's allegations, both countries engaged in a tit-for-tat expulsion of diplomats. Canada expelled six Indian diplomats, including High Commissioner Sanjay Kumar Verma, citing their involvement in targeted campaigns against Canadian citizens. In response, India expelled six Canadian diplomats, including Acting High Commissioner Steward Ross Wheeler.
The diplomatic fallout escalated further when Trudeau accused Indian agents of engaging in "clandestine information-gathering techniques" and coercive behavior targeting South Asian Canadians. He claimed that these actions posed a significant threat to public safety.
Politically motivated?
The timing of Trudeau's allegations raises questions about domestic political motivations. With elections scheduled for 2025, some analysts speculate that Trudeau may be leveraging the situation to galvanize support from the Sikh community in Canada, which constitutes approximately 2% of the population and is politically significant.
Earlier this year, Trudeau faced political challenges when Jagmeet Singh’s New Democratic Party withdrew support for his minority Liberal government. Singh is perceived as sympathetic to Khalistani ideals, making Trudeau's current stance critical for his political survival.
Broader implications
The ongoing diplomatic spat has broader implications beyond immediate relations. Canada has suspended visa services for Indians and halted consular operations in key cities like Chandigarh and Mumbai. This could affect the nearly 2 million Indian diaspora in Canada, which constitutes about 5% of the North American country's total population.
Experts warn that the diplomatic row could hinder negotiations for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between India and Canada, which both nations had previously sought to enhance trade relations. The West's disapproval of India's alleged actions regarding Khalistani activists also complicates matters, as both the U.S. and Canada have expressed concerns over sovereignty violations.
A stalemate ahead
As both countries continue to exchange accusations without providing substantial evidence, the diplomatic rift appears poised to deepen further. With each passing day, the stakes rise higher for both nations as they grapple with this complex web of accusations and political maneuvering. The future of India-Canada relations remains uncertain from both sides.
How will this affect the Indian diaspora in Canada? Will both countries resolve this situation? Is Trudeau the only one India has an issue with? Was the Indian agent really involved in the killing? Questions remain unanswered.
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