The Election Commission of India has officially announced that Jammu and Kashmir will hold its first Assembly elections in a decade, marking a significant political development for the region. This comes after a prolonged period of President's Rule and the controversial abrogation of Article 370, which stripped Jammu and Kashmir of its special status in August 2019.
A Decade of Political Stagnation
For the past ten years, the citizens of Jammu and Kashmir have been without a local or state government, with the last elections held in 2014. Since June 2018, when the BJP withdrew support from the PDP-led government, the region has been under President's Rule, which was further complicated by the central government's decision to reorganize the state into two Union Territories: Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh.
In December 2023, the Supreme Court mandated that Assembly elections be conducted by September 2024, setting a deadline that has now been met with the announcement of a three-phase election schedule starting on September 18, 2024, and concluding with the counting of votes on October 4, 2024 .
Implications of the Upcoming Elections
Despite the upcoming elections, the political landscape remains complex. The newly elected government will operate within the constraints typical of Union Territories, lacking full statehood. This means that while a local government will be in place, the central government, through an appointed Governor, will retain ultimate authority over key governance issues.
Prominent political figures, including former Chief Ministers Mehbooba Mufti and Omar Abdullah, have expressed reluctance to participate in these elections until Jammu and Kashmir is restored to full statehood. Their parties, part of the INDI alliance, will be under scrutiny to see how they perform under these conditions .
Economic and Security Landscape
The last six years under President's Rule have seen notable changes in the region's economic and security dynamics. According to the Economic Survey, Jammu and Kashmir's GDP has doubled to over Rs 2.25 lakh crore, and per capita income has significantly increased. The region's economy has reportedly grown faster than the national average since 2019.
In terms of security, there has been a dramatic decline in terrorism-related incidents, with reported cases dropping from 228 in 2018 to just 43 in 2023. Organized stone-pelting incidents, once a common occurrence, have reportedly ceased entirely in 2023, a stark contrast to the thousands recorded in previous years .
As Jammu and Kashmir prepares for its first Assembly elections in a decade, the implications of this political shift are profound. While the elections may restore a semblance of local governance, the overarching control of the central government suggests that true autonomy remains a distant goal. The performance of local parties, particularly those led by former Chief Ministers, will be pivotal in shaping the future political landscape of the region.
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