Bills, especially for which an amendment in the constitution is required, usually need a two-thirds special majority in the parliament (in the case of the 543 member Lok Sabha, around 360 votes). So reforms such as UCC, NRC, and One Nation-One Election, which were on cards in the previous BJP-led government, now seem unlikely.
The NDA has returned to power for a historic third straight term at the Centre, but the BJP itself has fallen short of the majority mark of 272. That implies there will be a coalition government; but what does it mean for economic reforms and other reforms which were on cards in the previous BJP-led government?
How The Previous Coalition Governments Dealt With Reforms?
Since 1991, when India was forced to open up, all governments were coalitions of the sort where even the lead party was quite far from the majority mark of 272. This obvious weakness of the leading party - be it the Congress or the BJP or the so-called third front, showed that while everyone agreed that economic reforms were required, the parties of the ruling coalition pulled in different directions when it came to deciding the exact nature of economic reforms.
What Was Different In The Last 10 Years?
In terms of economic governance, the one aspect that distinguished the past two Lok Sabhas was the fact that it was the first time since the start of economic reforms in 1991 that a single party - BJP, enjoyed a majority mandate. This was supposed to have a salutary effect on the trajectory of economic reforms in India. And to an extent, India did see a few major economic reforms (whether those turned out to be positive for the nation’s economy or not is still a topic of debate).
So, Can A Coalition Government Derail India’s Economic Reforms Trajectory?
Not necessarily. There are two ways to look at it.
ONE, In the past decade while Modi’s first two terms saw several reforms such as the introduction of the GST and the creation of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, it was not exactly a smooth ride all through.
For instance, the Modi government failed to bring several other reforms, such as land acquisition. Similarly, the government could not convince farmers about the farm reforms and was forced to repeal them.
TWO, If one looks back at India’s economic history since 1991, it becomes clear that coalition governments have undertaken some of the boldest and most visionary reforms that laid the foundation for India’s resurgence.
The biggest examples are the removal of the licence-permit raj and India becoming a member of the World Trade Organisation during the P V Narasimha Rao-led government. The short-lived Deve Gowda government’s “dream budget” placed faith in the Indian taxpayers and cut tax rates - both personal income tax, corporate taxes, and customs duties.
Other Remarkable Reforms Made During Previous Coalition Governments
The Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led NDA government limited the government’s ability to borrow within prudential limits, advanced the push towards disinvestment of loss-making Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs), brought in the IT Act in 2000, that laid the foundation for the bustling e-commerce giant that India is today, and many more.
The Manmohan Singh-led UPA govt. brought in several reforms under the rights-based approach - Right to Information Act, Right to Food, and MG-NREGA - which provided minimum employment to the rural poor, and also built on the Vajpayee era reforms.
What About Several Other Reforms Which The BJP Had Been Talking About?
Reforms are brought in by the governments through different processes, introduction of a bill for it in the parliament and getting it passed from both the houses is the most prominent one. Now there are bills which need just a simple majority of those present in the parliament to pass.
But bills, especially for which an amendment in the constitution is required, usually need a two-thirds special majority in the parliament (in the case of the 543 member Lok Sabha, around 360 votes). So reforms such as UCC, NRC, and One Nation-One Election, which were on cards in the previous BJP-led government, now seem unlikely.
Comments